FanBoardHQ

Central Michigan

Central Michigan University · 2024 · Mid-American

FanBoardHQ CFP
#116
Efficiency
-16.6
122nd FBS
Record
4-8
Conf. record
2-6
Conf. finish
T-9th
of 12
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Central Michigan went 4-8 and was ranked 116th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 111th-ranked offense was the engine, backed by an 119th-ranked defense. They ran the ball on 56% of offensive plays with an 86th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 44% of plays with a 135th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-0
Q2
0-1
Q3
0-3
Q4
4-4

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 4.0 wins
Strength of Record
114th
-6.3 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
117th
full season
117th
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
99th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.8 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs Central ConnecticutNECW 6610+13.3100%5.0Q4
2vs FIUConference USA#115L 1652-5.00%-45.0Q4
3@ IllinoisBig Ten#18L 930-27.50%-11.2Q2
4vs Ball StateMid-American#122W 3734+4.7100%-18.1Q4
5vs San Diego StateMountain West#125W 2221+4.6100%-18.9Q4
7vs OhioMid-American#46L 2527-13.60%-5.7Q4
8@ Eastern MichiganMid-American#108L 3438-6.50%-12.5Q4
9@ Miami-OHMid-American#59L 746-16.70%-29.5Q3
11vs Bowling GreenMid-American#72L 1323-12.60%-15.1Q4
12@ ToledoMid-American#71L 1037-16.60%-33.8Q3
13vs Western MichiganMid-American#95W 1614-3.4100%-8.3Q4
14@ Northern IllinoisMid-American#65L 1624-17.50%-6.8Q3

12 played · 4-8. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Central Michigan, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-41.0-20.0+1.05-45-11-18-19-6-12-29-15-34-8-7Week 0Week 20
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 135th
SR 132ndYPP 126thEPA 137th
RushingEff 86th
SR 115thYPP 81stEPA 70th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 67th
SR 35thYPP 67thEPA 83rd
Rush defenseEff 119th
SR 98thYPP 126thEPA 117th
Dropback rate 44%Tempo -5.8 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 84th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 45%1st · Defense allowed: 40%1st2nd · Offense: 34%2nd · Defense allowed: 39%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 40%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 38%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 37.0Q1 · Allowed: 85.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 102.0Q2 · Allowed: 100.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 44.0Q3 · Allowed: 54.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 61.0Q4 · Allowed: 95.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledCentral MichiganOffenseDefense
Central Michigan Offense vs Defense, 2024
Offensive EffRanked 111th
-6.7
Field position: -1.3Finishing drives: -5.3
Field position -1.3Finishing drives -5.3= -6.7
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 106th · Finishing 107th

Defensive EffRanked 119th
-8.4
Field position: -1.4Finishing drives: -7.0
Field position -1.4Finishing drives -7.0= -8.4
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 120th · Finishing 113th

1.73 points per drive on offense, 2.35 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 27.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(155)45% / 55%34%5.1
Q2(208)46% / 54%43%6.2
Q3(163)35% / 65%40%6.3
Q4(202)50% / 50%41%5.3
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(126)10.146%6.8
2nd(97)8.236%6.3
3rd(87)8.222%4.3
4th(13)5.246%5.6
All (323)37%5.9
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(197)9.844%6.0
2nd(128)8.132%4.8
3rd(68)5.554%5.3
4th(12)2.183%7.9
All (405)43%5.5

Central Michigan, all games.